Budget 2026: Who Is Exposed, to What, and How Much Is Actually Known

John Healey's first Budget, the first of Andy Burnham's government, is best read as a fiscal-tightening event with a high chance of targeted changes rather than a simple rise in headline rates. Three points frame everything else.

• The room to manoeuvre has shrunk. Headroom against the fiscal rules was above £24bn in March. Since then gilt yields, higher borrowing and new commitments have eaten into it: ITEM Club puts it at just over £10bn, and the Resolution Foundation has suggested it could be as low as £5bn.

• The biggest levers are formally off the table. Rates of income tax, employee National Insurance and VAT will not rise, and corporation tax is capped at 25%. That pushes attention towards thresholds, capital gains, property, pensions, inheritance tax, reliefs and sector-specific levies.

• Much is already decided. A surprising amount of what will affect households over the next three years is already announced or legislated. Separating that from rumour is the most useful thing anyone can do.

Over the next 14 weekdays, we'll go through who is exposed to what, and separate what is already known from what is rumour