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Budget 2026 - What does “ruled out” actually cover?
“Ruled out” is narrower than the headlines suggest.
Protected by the main tax-rate pledge: the main rates of income tax, employee National Insurance and VAT.
Subject to a separate commitment: the main corporation tax rate, capped at 25% for this Parliament.
Outside those specific rate pledges: tax thresholds and allowances, employer National Insurance, capital gains tax, dividend and savings taxation, pension relief and tax-free cash, inheritance tax, property taxes, business rates, and bank or energy levies. Some are subject to other commitments or measures already announced.
Thresholds are the clearest example. Key income tax thresholds are frozen until April 2031. As earnings rise, more income becomes taxable or falls into higher tax bands, even without a change to headline rates.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that restoring inflation-linked increases to the personal allowance from April 2027 would cost the Treasury approximately £8.4bn a year in the long run, in today's terms.
Chancellor John Healey has declined to comment on potential tax changes ahead of the Budget, while reaffirming the government's manifesto commitments.
So the useful question isn't simply “will taxes go up?” It's “which taxes and reliefs remain open to change, and who would bear the cost?”
General information only, not personal tax or financial advice.
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